Explaining the eventual transient saturation of climate-carbon cycle feedback

Background

Coupled climate-carbon cycle simulations generally show that climate feedbacks amplify the buildup of CO₂ under respective anthropogenic emission. The effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback is characterised by the feedback gain: the relative increase in CO₂ increment as compared to uncoupled simulations. According to the results of the recent Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C⁴MIP), the gain is expected to increase during the 21st century. This conclusion is not supported by the climate model developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM). The latter model shows an eventual transient saturation of the feedback gain. This saturation is manifested in a change of climate-carbon cycle feedback gain which grows initially, attains a maximum, and then decreases, eventually tending to unity.

Results

Numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM as well as an analysis of the conceptual framework demonstrate that this eventual transient saturation results from the fact that transient climate sensitivity decreases with time.

Conclusion

One may conclude that the eventual transient saturation of the climate-carbon cycle feedback is a fundamental property of the coupled climate-carbon system that manifests itself on a relevant time scale.     

An evaluation of the economic,social, and ecological risks of China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway construction and policy suggestions

The construction of China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railways is a strategic move to promote transportation infrastructure inter-connectivity between these countries, which will accelerate the implementation of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor. However, well-planned China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railways demand accurately identifying construction risks, scientifically evaluating risk levels, and mapping the spatial distribution of these risks. Therefore, this study established the integrated risk evaluation model (IREM) to scientifically evaluate the economic, social, and ecological risks of China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway construction and determine their magnitude and spatial distribution pattern. Based on this analysis, we propose designs for the east and west China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railways and policy suggestions to mitigate construction risks. Suggestions include developing innovative cooperation of the "high-speed railway for resources and market", strengthening communication and technology dissemination, and applying innovative engineering techniques and setting buffers; establishing collaborative prevention and control systems to mitigate the three major ecological risks in the China, Mongolia, and Russia trans-border areas; and promoting economic integration by improving strategic coordination. In summary, this study provides scientific support for designing the China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railways minimizing construction risks.     

Generalized non‐hyperbolic approximation for qP‐wave relative geometrical spreading in a layered transversely isotropic medium with a vertical symmetry axis

Compensation for geometrical spreading along the ray‐path is important in amplitude variation with offset analysis especially for not strongly attenuative media since it contributes to the seismic amplitude preservation. The P‐wave geometrical spreading factor is described by a non‐hyperbolic moveout approximation using the traveltime parameters that can be estimated from the velocity analysis. We extend the P‐wave relative geometrical spreading approximation from the rational form to the generalized non‐hyperbolic form in a transversely isotropic medium with a vertical symmetry axis. The acoustic approximation is used to reduce the number of parameters. The proposed generalized non‐hyperbolic approximation is developed with parameters defined by two rays: vertical and a reference rays. For numerical examples, we consider two choices for parameter selection by using two specific orientations for reference ray. We observe from the numerical tests that the proposed generalized non‐hyperbolic approximation gives more accurate results in both homogeneous and multi‐layered models than the rational counterpart.     

S‐wave kinematics in acoustic transversely isotropic media with a vertical symmetry axis

Acoustic transversely isotropic models are widely used in seismic exploration for P‐wave processing and analysis. In isotropic acoustic media only P‐wave can propagate, while in an acoustic transversely isotropic medium both P and S waves propagate. In this paper, we focus on kinematic properties of S‐wave in acoustic transversely isotropic media. We define new parameters better suited for S‐wave kinematics analysis. We also establish the travel time and relative geometrical spreading equations and analyse their properties. To illustrate the behaviour of the S‐wave in multi‐layered acoustic transversely isotropic media, we define the Dix‐type equations that are different from the ones widely used for the P‐wave propagation.     

The instrumental seismicity of the Barents and Kara sea region: relocated event catalog from early twentieth century to 1989

We have relocated seismic events registered within the Barents and Kara sea region from early twentieth century to 1989 with a view to creating a relocated catalog. For the relocation, we collected all available seismic bulletins from the global network using data from the ISC Bulletin (International Seismological Centre), ISC-GEM project (International Seismological Centre–Global Earthquake Model), EuroSeismos project, and by Soviet seismic stations from Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The location was performed by applying a modified method of generalized beamforming. We have considered several travel time models and selected one with the best location accuracy for ground truth events. Verification of the modified method and selection of the travel time model were performed using data on four nuclear explosions that occurred in the area of the Novaya Zemlya Archipelago and in the north of the European part of Russia. The modified method and the Barents travel time model provide sufficient accuracy for event location in the region. The relocation procedure was applied to 31 of 36 seismic events registered within the Barents and Kara sea region.     

Euxinia as a dominant process during OAE1a (Early Aptian) on the Eastern Russian Platform and during OAE1b (Early Albian) in the Middle Caspian

A detailed study of the mineral composition and microstructure of the black shales associated with OAE1a (Eastern Russian Platform), OAE1b (Middle Caspian), and the host rocks has been carried out using X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopic, and microprobe analyses. The results provide important constraints for depositional environments in the sedimentary basins. Black shales with pyrite framboids imply euxinic (sulfidic) conditions with increased organic matter preservation. Disintegrating framboids suggest partial or complete dissolution of the organic matter inside the framboids due to increasing water oxygenation. OAE1a on the Eastern Russian Platform is heterogeneous as it includes thin interbeds of concretionary coccolith limestones within the interval of bituminous shales, and correlates with the Lower Aptian Rhagodiscus angustus nannofossil zone. The coccolith limestones indicate short intermittent episodes of interrupted stagnation, rapid oxygenation, and restoration of normal marine conditions. The presence of montmorillonite, albite, microcline, and diopside in the bituminous siltstones and in the host siltstones of OAE1a on the Eastern Russian Platform, as well as a high content of titanium in the black siltstones correlated with OAE1b in the Middle Caspian allow proposing significant input of pyroclastic material into the extant sea.     

Perturbation‐based moveout approximations in anisotropic media

The moveout approximations play an important role in seismic data processing. The standard hyperbolic moveout approximation is based on an elliptical background model with two velocities: vertical and normal moveout. We propose a new set of moveout approximations based on a perturbation series in terms of anellipticity parameters using the alternative elliptical background model defined by vertical and horizontal velocities. We start with a transversely isotropic medium with a vertical symmetry axis. Then, we extend this approach to a homogeneous orthorhombic medium. To define the perturbation coefficients for a new background, we solve the eikonal equation with horizontal velocities in transversely isotropic medium with a vertical symmetry axis and orthorhombic media. To stabilise the perturbation series and improve the accuracy, the Shanks transform is applied for all the cases. We select different parameterisations for both velocities and anellipticity parameters for an orthorhombic model. From the comparison in traveltime error, the new moveout approximations result in better accuracy comparing with the standard perturbation‐based methods and other approximations.     

A possible mechanism of stimulation of seismic activity by ionizing radiation of solar flares

A possible mechanism of earthquake triggering by ionizing radiation of solar flares is considered. A theoretical model and results of numerical calculations of disturbance of electric field, electric current, and heat release in lithosphere associated with variation of ionosphere conductivity caused by absorption of ionizing radiation of solar flares are presented. A generation of geomagnetic field disturbances in a range of seconds/tens of seconds is possible as a result of large-scale perturbation of a conductivity of the bottom part of ionosphere in horizontal direction in the presence of external electric field. Amplitude-time characteristics of the geomagnetic disturbance depend upon a perturbation of integral conductivity of ionosphere. Depending on relation between integral Hall and Pedersen conductivities of disturbed ionosphere the oscillating and aperiodic modes of magnetic disturbances may be observed. For strong perturbations of the ionosphere conductivities amplitude of pulsations may obtain ~10² nT. In this case the amplitude of horizontal component of electric field on the Earth surface obtains 0.01 mV/m, electric current density in lithosphere –10^–6 A/m², and the power density of heat release produced by the generated current is 10^–7 W/m³. It is shown that the absorption of ionizing radiation of solar flares can result in variations of a density of telluric currents in seismogenic faults comparable with a current density generated in the Earth crust by artificial pulsed power systems (geophysical MHD generator " Pamir-2” and electric pulsed facility " ERGU-600”), which provide regional earthquake triggering and spatiotemporal variation of seismic activity. Therefore, triggering of seismic events is possible not only by man-made pulsed power sources but also by the solar flares. The obtained results may be a physical basis for a novel approach to solve the problem of short-term earthquake prediction based on electromagnetic triggering phenomena.     

Taphonomic phenomenon of ancient hair from Glacial Beringia: perspectives for palaeoecological reconstructions

An accumulation of mammoth hair, discovered in the Bol'shaya Chukochya River valley (northeast Yakutia, Russia), was found to contain remains of terrestrial and aquatic organisms, including plants, insects, crustaceans, birds and mammals. Radiocarbon dating indicated that this post‐mortem taphocoenosis represented multiple time periods. The mammoth hair was dated to older than 45 ka BP, the plants were dated to 12 750±50 a BP (which corresponds to a shift in the environmental conditions and landscapes during the formation of thermokarst in northeastern Russia) and the bird feathers were dated to 4115±40 a BP. A scenario of the formation of this fossil assemblage is proposed, covering the MIS 3‐1 time range. The hair also yielded various Arctic branchiopod crustaceans, which inhabit shallow temporary water bodies and therefore are important for reconstruction of palaeoenvironments. The cladoceran subgenus Daphnia (Ctenodaphnia), currently absent from the Asian part of Beringia, is reported from this region for the first time. The study demonstrates that the discovered permafrost‐preserved hair is a unique repository of Ice Age organisms.     

Estimate of the Upper Limit on Hot Plasma Differential Emission Measure (DEM) in Non-Flaring Active Regions and Nanoflare Frequency Based on the Mg <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">xii</Emphasis> Spectroheliograph Data from CORONAS-F/SPIRIT

Nanoflare-heating theory predicts steady hot-plasma emission in non-flaring active regions. It is hard to find this emission with conventional non-monochromatic imagers (such as the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly or the X-Ray Telescope), because their images contain a cool-temperature background. In this work, we search for hot plasma in non-flaring active regions using the Mg?xii spectroheliograph onboard the Complex Orbital Observations Near-Earth of Activity on the Sun (CORONAS)-F/SPectroheliographIc X-ray Imaging Telescope (SPIRIT). This instrument acquired monochromatic images of the solar corona in the Mg?xii 8.42 Å line, which emits only at temperatures higher than 4 MK. The Mg?xii images only contain the signal from hot plasma, without any low-temperature background. We studied the hot plasma in active regions using SPIRIT data from 18?–?28 February 2002. During this period, the Mg?xii spectroheliograph worked with a 105-second cadence almost without data gaps. Hot plasma was observed only in the flaring active regions. We did not observe any hot plasma in non-flaring active regions. The hot-plasma column emission measure in the non-flaring active region is not expected to exceed \(3 \times10^{24}\) cm^?5. The hot differential emission measure is lower than 0.01% of the DEM of the main temperature component. The absence of Mg?xii emission in the non-flaring active regions can be explained by weak and frequent nanoflares (with a delay of less than 500 seconds) or by very short and intense nanoflares that lead to non-equilibrium ionization.